The final stage of Israel’s war on Gaza is underway. 

While initially presented as a mission to recover hostages and dismantle Hamas, its underlying objective is now being openly stated: Depopulate Gaza and bring the territory under Israeli control. Recent remarks by Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, as well as the most recent developments within the enclave, offer perhaps the clearest confirmation yet.

Since Israel shattered the ceasefire early last week, its renewed assault, “greenlit” by U.S. President Donald Trump, has killed nearly 600 Palestinians. That includes more than 400 women and children, according to health authorities.

After cutting off the supply of food, electricity, and humanitarian aid in early March, Israel now vows to intensify its campaign on an already devastated population. The message to Gaza’s survivors is unmistakable: leave or die.

Last Friday, Katz issued an unequivocal statement. According to The Times of Israel:

In a statement, Katz says: “If the Hamas terror organization continues to refuse to release the hostages, I instructed the IDF [Israeli Defense Forces] to capture additional areas, evacuate the population, and expand the security zone around Gaza for the protection of Israeli communities and IDF soldiers, through a permanent hold of the area by Israel.”
“As long as Hamas continues its refusal, it will lose more and more land that will be added to Israel,” Katz says.

Hamas currently holds 59 hostages; Israel believes 24 are still alive.

The group, in turn, insists it will not free the remaining captives unless Israel agrees to a permanent ceasefire and a complete withdrawal from the territory, quoting the ceasefire agreement signed in January.

Katz also invoked U.S. support for population removal, stating Israel would use “all military and civilian pressure, including evacuation of the Gaza population south and implementing US President Trump’s voluntary migration plan for Gaza residents.”

Trump’s so-called “voluntary” migration plan referenced by Katz is neither voluntary nor humanitarian. Announced in early February, it envisions the permanent relocation of over 2 million Palestinian residents to neighboring countries, with the goal of transforming the territory into a “Riviera” “owned” by the United States.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has endorsed the proposal, describing it as a “bold” and “fresh” strategy that could lead to the reconstruction of Gaza. Katz has instructed the IDF to prepare plans facilitating the departure of Gaza residents.

However, the plan has faced widespread criticism and rejection from various quarters. Egypt and Jordan have firmly opposed the proposal, citing concerns over forced displacement and potential violations of international law. Human rights organizations and international legal experts have condemned the plan as a form of ethnic cleansing.

Despite the controversy, Trump has continued to push for the initiative. In February, he confirmed Palestinians would have “no right” to return.

Israel no longer hides its intention to take full control of Gaza. A Sunday report from The Times of Israel confirmed that Israeli officials are now actively discussing a plan for full military occupation of the Gaza Strip with U.S. counterparts. Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer is leading the delegation in Washington.

The plan, as described by one Israeli official, includes placing the IDF in charge of “humanitarian aid operations” inside Gaza. Dermer is joined by senior representatives from Mossad, the Foreign Ministry, and the Israel Atomic Energy Agency. That indicates the plan’s strategic and long-term scope.

As The Times of Israel summarized, citing The Washington Post:

Israel has until now avoided pushing for military rule of the Gaza Strip, but with a new IDF chief of staff and defense minister — not to mention a new president in the White House — Israel’s thinking appears to have changed.

That change is already taking shape on the ground. According to officials, the upcoming escalation will involve “targeting Hamas’s civilian leadership,” while forcibly “evacuating women, children, and vetted noncombatants to ‘humanitarian bubbles.’” The remaining population — mostly men — will be treated as enemy fighters and systematically eliminated.

Another Sunday report confirmed the establishment of Israel’s new office within the Defense Ministry, tasked explicitly with facilitating the “voluntary departure” of Palestinians from Gaza.

Katz said the office will work to “prepare for and enable safe and controlled passage” for those fleeing. That would include passages by land, sea, and air. He stressed adherence to Trump’s plan:

We are working with all means to implement the US president’s vision, and we will allow any Gaza resident who wants to move to a third state to do so.

The office was planned in coordination with Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. Earlier this month, he said Israel could expel up to 5,000 Palestinians per day. As a result, Gaza could be “cleansed” within just a year.

The practical problem, for now, is where to send the refugees. According to multiple reports, Israel and the U.S. have approached Somalia, Somaliland, Sudan, and Syria to accept Gazans — so far, without success.

Still, the policy now has a home, a budget, and an office sign. The machinery of expulsion is no longer theoretical. It’s operational.

As of Sunday, Gaza’s Health Ministry reported over 50,000 Palestinians killed since October 7, 2023 — including 14,500 children. Israeli intelligence deems the data from the source “generally accurate.”

But the true toll may be far higher. 

The Lancet estimated that between the beginning of war and late June 2024, “up to 186,000 or even more deaths could be attributable to the current conflict in Gaza.” The study accounts for those trapped under rubble or killed by starvation, disease, and lack of medical care. Another Lancet study found Gaza’s life expectancy has collapsed — from 75.5 years to just over 40.

Upon taking office, Trump called Gaza “a phenomenal location” turned into “a massive demolition site.” Indeed, in the first nine months of war, Israel dropped 70,000 tons of bombs. That leveled entire neighborhoods and displaced over 90 percent of the population. The latest estimates suggest that nearly 70 percent of all structures have been destroyed or damaged. That includes 92 percent of all housing units.

Last Friday, Israel flattened Gaza’s only cancer center. Two days later, it bombed the emergency unit at Nasser Medical Complex, claiming the attack killed one Hamas leader.

The aim appears clear: Make Gaza unlivable, drive its people out, and pave the way for annexation — turning the depopulated land into beachfront property.

by Sam Kiley, World Affairs Editor, Arpan Rai, Rachel Clun, for The Independent                            Wednesday 26 March 2025 

Ukraine is cagey about the size of its navy. Which isn’t surprising. In conventional terms it hasn’t really got one. But Kyiv rules in the Black Sea with its near invisible fleet.

Three years after Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, in which the bulk of Kyiv’s navy was sunk, Russia's Black Sea Fleet is cowed and hiding.

Described by the UK’s ministry of defence as “functionally inactive”, the sinking of Russia’s flagship vessel the Moskva by Ukrainian cruise missiles in 2022 proved a major blow for Putin’s navy.

Small wonder that the Russian president’s overtures towards a ceasefire with Ukraine focused on a call for a suspension of fighting in the Black and Azov seas. He’s lost around 30-40 per cent of his vessels here – and the rest have slunk away to hide in Russian ports such as Novorossiysk.

The crew of one of Ukraine’s few patrolling vessels, a reconditioned former US coastguard Island-class cutter, is tired. They were up all-night manning the ship’s double-barreled cannon, shooting at Russian Shahed drones that swarmed the skies over Odesa.

But, as merchant ships sailed quietly into the ports along Ukraine’s southern coast, the crew was confident. They haven’t seen a Russian vessel for months.

“Maybe we get some sea drones [from the Russian side] but not often. Every day, or at least every other day, we get air attacks though from Crimea,” says Lieutenant Commander Mykhailo.

“We don’t know the destination of every Shahed [drone] that is flying overhead is – maybe we are the target,” he adds.

Russian skippers are probably more anxious.

Since 2022, Ukraine – with a navy numbering around 11,000 personnel – has sunk at least 20 Russian vessels; among them cruisers, the Moskva, several troop landing ships, and numerous smaller vessels.

These losses have all been down to a new form of naval warfare pioneered by Ukraine’s navy because, aside from the Island-class patrol boat, and a handful of small boats in what’s known as a “mosquito force”, Ukraine isn’t bothering with ships.

Former Royal Navy mine hunters transferred to the Ukrainian navy are stuck in the UK because they cannot travel through the Bosphorus Strait. Turkey has banned military traffic through the strategic route since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The focus instead has been to use long-range rockets, cruise missiles, underwater and surface drones – almost all of them homemade in Ukraine. They’ve almost harried Moscow’s Black Sea fleet out of business.

“We don’t need a fleet to destroy the Russian fleet. We have very, very smart guys who create sea drones. Sea drones and missiles,” says the skipper.

Ukraine’s exports of grain and other products are back to pre-war levels. They had been strangled by regular Russian attacks at sea. A brief agreement to leave agricultural products to freely travel through the Black Sea collapsed in July 2023.

Putin has lost around 30-40 per cent of his vessels in the Black Sea 

Ukraine’s use of sea drones, combined with an almost unlimited feed of intelligence from British and other Nato aircraft, American spy satellites, and signals intercepts, has meant that Kyiv has regained access to its waterways.

And avoided the “meat-grinder” battles that have characterised the land war.

In the early days of the renewed conflict in 2022, the skipper was in charge of a different vessel. Its whereabouts now is a military secret but it is likely to have been sunk. Probably in the engagement in which Mykhailo recalls, only in part.

He knew from his radar that two Russian missiles were heading his way.

“One was shot down. The other one... I don’t talk about this. But I am not going to lie to you, it’s really scary when you know these missiles are coming and you might be in your last seconds of life,” he says, standing on the bridge of the surviving patrol boat he uses to prowl sea lanes so vital for Ukraine’s survival.

Lieutenant commander Cedric Dmytro Pletenchuk, spokesperson for the Ukrainian navy, explains how dominance over Russia was achieved after early setbacks.

“It happened in several important stages,” he says. “This took quite a long time. The key turning point was destroying the Moskva warship, which allowed us to liberate the north part of the Black Sea.

“After this, sea drones changed rules of the games. The Russians had to leave the west and the central part of the Black Sea.”

Crimea, captured in 2014, was once the headquarters of the Soviet Black Sea Fleet and after independence from the Soviet Union, the home of the Ukrainian navy.

Putin illegally annexed the peninsular in 2014. In 2022 his forces used it as a bridgehead to invade further into the country and as a major launching base for drones and air attacks.

“The next stage was striking the Crimean bases,” says Pletenchuk. “The Russians had to withdraw their warships from the occupied Crimea ports. After strikes on the ports in the eastern part of the Black Sea, and Azov sea east coast, the Russians had to leave the Azov sea as well.

“As of now, the Russians have to hide in the Novorossiysk naval base, where they have to move ships constantly to avoid our strikes,” he adds.

At sea, Mykhailo’s boat is lightly armed with its cannon and four 50MM heavy machine guns. It’s fast and manoeuvrable and is mainly used to escort the civilian ships along Ukraine’s trade routes.

A few days earlier, the MJ Pinar, a Barbados flagged grain cargo ship was hit and four crew, all Syrians, killed by a Russian missile while tied up in Odesa.

Russia’s assault on civilian targets is relentless on land and on the sea.

It continues to be a reason why Ukrainians universally reject a full ceasefire with Russia if it cannot be enforced. More than 80 per cent of Ukrainians believe that Russia’s ambitions do not stop with the territory Moscow has already occupied.

Ukraine’s success in the Black Sea has been another inspiration which started on day one of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.